AP source: Haynesworth fails conditioning test

Football Betting Lines

07/29/2010 -

ASHBURN, Va. (AP) -Albert Haynesworth has failed his conditioning test and is being forced to sit out the first practice of the Washington Redskins training camp.

A person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press that Haynesworth did not pass the test Thursday morning. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because coach Mike Shanahan planned to address the matter after practice.

Haynesworth boycotted the team's offseason workouts and minicamps because he is unhappy with the Redskins' switch to a 3-4 defense and wanted a trade. When he finally returned to Redskins Park on Wednesday, he was told he would have to pass a conditioning test in order to take part in training camp and would start off practicing with the reserves.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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<< 2010 NFL Training Camp Dates
BALTIMORE RAVENS - McDaniel College, Westminster, Md., rookies: July 26/veterans: July 28.BUFFALO BILLS - St. John Fisher College, Pittsford, N.Y., both July 29.CINCINNATI BENGALS - Georgetown College, Georgetown, Ky., both July 28.CLEVELAND BROWNS

<< AP source: Oswalt says OK for trade to Phillies
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -A person with knowledge of the deal says Houston ace Roy Oswalt has agreed to waive his no-trade clause and accept a swap to the Philadelphia Phillies.The person aware of the trade told The Associated Press that Oswalt must first

<< Thrashers re-sign Ladd
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers agreed to terms with forward Andrew Ladd on Thursday. Terms of the contract were not announced, per team policy. The 24-year-old winger came to Atlanta from the reigning Stanley Cu

<< Rangers place Kinsler on DL
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers placed All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin among several roster moves made by the club on Thursday. The move is retroactive to

<< Canada following a path to gold
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team Canada's quest for gold at the World Junior Baseball Championship nearly took a detour down a dangerous road. Luckily for them, Dalton Pompey knows his way around a diamond. Pompey came off the b

Orioles hire Buck Showalter as manager >>
BALTIMORE (AP) -The Baltimore Orioles have hired Buck Showalter to be their manager.Showalter's first game will be Tuesday night at Camden Yards against the Los Angeles Angels.Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the hiri

Seahawks sign free-agent G Chester Pitts >>
RENTON, Wash. (AP) -Free-agent guard Chester Pitts has agreed to a contract with the Seattle Seahawks on the eve of training camp.The team announced the deal on Thursday for the starter with the Houston Texans from 2002 until last season.Seahawks ve

Report: Orioles hire Showalter as manager >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have reportedly hired Buck Showalter to be their next manager. The Baltimore Sun is one of several media outlets to report the hiring. His first game as manager will be August 3

Seattle inks Fernandez as third DP >>
Renton, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Sounders FC signed Uruguay national team midfielder Alvaro Fernandez, the Major League Soccer club announced on Thursday. The 24-year-old Fernandez, who will be Seattle's third designated pl

Report: Oswalt agrees to waive no-trade clause >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston's Roy Oswalt has agreed to waive his no-trade clause, according to multiple media reports, and will be dealt from the Astros to the Philadelphia Phillies. Comcast SportsNet in Philadelphia

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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